Thursday's US Open men's singles draw did more than divide 128 players. It placed every former champion in the 2026 field in the bottom half and projected a semifinal between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz — a meeting that can only happen after each man navigates a very different route.
The shape of the draw begins with Jannik Sinner's absence. The World No. 1 withdrew with a right knee injury, leaving Alexander Zverev as the top seed, defending champion Alcaraz at No. 2 and Djokovic at No. 4. Djokovic landed on the Spaniard's side. If both win five matches, they will meet in the semifinals, never in the final.
That half contains every man in the draw who has lifted the trophy in New York: Alcaraz, the 2022 and 2025 champion; Djokovic, winner in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2023; 2021 champion Daniil Medvedev; 2016 winner Stan Wawrinka; and 2014 champion Marin Cilic. Their presence guarantees nothing, but it gives every possible reunion an extra layer of memory.
Djokovic opens against Argentina's Mariano Navone. The second round could bring Matteo Berrettini or Wawrinka, who is playing the final major of his career exactly 10 years after defeating Djokovic in the 2016 final. By seeding, Brandon Nakashima is the projected fourth-round opponent, Medvedev the quarterfinal opponent and Alcaraz the semifinal opponent. They are guideposts, not appointments: the US Open rarely follows a straight line for two full weeks.
Alcaraz must also keep his attention on the opening match. He faces Roman Safiullin in his first official contest since April, when a right wrist injury ended his run in Barcelona. Montreal champion Ben Shelton and Cincinnati winner Arthur Fils occupy the same quarter, bringing precisely the serve and first-strike power most likely to test a comeback short on match play.
The potential Alcaraz-Djokovic matchup is balanced by evidence, not only reputation. Their head-to-head series stands at 5-5. Alcaraz won their only meeting of 2026 in the Australian Open final, while Djokovic returns to the venue where he claimed the most recent of his 24 major titles. In New York, the distance between expectation and reality can be one night session.
Zverev begins the top half against Lorenzo Sonego, in a section without a former US Open champion. That does not make his road easy: Felix Auger-Aliassime, Flavio Cobolli, Alex de Minaur and Taylor Fritz are all on that side. It only means the draw distributed New York-specific experience in an unusual way, leaving the bottom half with every player who already knows how to survive through the final Sunday at Flushing Meadows.
The most tempting image is a semifinal between the 2025 and 2023 champions. The more honest reading is that the draw placed too much history in one space and will force its leading names to manage it round by round. Before Alcaraz, Djokovic may have to revisit Wawrinka and Medvedev. Before Djokovic, Alcaraz must learn how his body responds after four months away.
The draw created the tournament's geography, not its destiny. Beginning Sunday, August 30, every name must turn a projection into a win. If Djokovic and Alcaraz reach the semifinals, their meeting will be the product of 10 victories — not a promise made by a bracket.
Sources consulted: ATP Tour and the US Open/USTA. Reporting updated August 28, 2026.